Thursday, April 11, 2013

Putin on Finland's criminal blacklist by 'mistake'

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic during a meeting in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Wednesday, April 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Sergei Karpukhin, Pool)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic during a meeting in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Wednesday, April 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Sergei Karpukhin, Pool)

(AP) ? Vladimir Putin, banned in Finland?

Finnish police say the Russian president's name was mistakenly placed on a secret criminal register that could theoretically have gotten him arrested at the border.

TV station MTV3 reported Wednesday that Putin was placed there for his contact with Russian motorcycle gang Night Wolves, though he wasn't suspected of a crime in Finland. But National Police Board spokesman Robin Lardot told the AP the listing was a mistake and that Putin's name was removed from the list.

"The National Police Board has investigated the case and indeed found that such a mistaken entry was in the register," Lardot told The Associated Press. "We have ordered it to be removed and are investigating the case very thoroughly. We don't know how it got there." He declined further comment.

Putin's inclusion would be a major source of embarrassment in bilateral relations.

Finnish Interior Minister Paivi Rasanen, whose ministry oversees the police, conveyed her "sincerest apologies" to Putin over the mistaken entry.

"The Interior Ministry considers it of grave concern if a member of the police has made such groundless entries into the database of suspects."

MTV3 said the content of the register is known only to a few top officials. But in a statement later Wednesday, police called it a "computerized personal data file intended for nationwide used by the police."

They said it includes information on people who are suspected of offenses punishable by prison "or having contributed to an offence subject to imprisonment of more than six months, or to an unlawful use of narcotics."

The Night Wolves says on its Web site that the club's prototype was born in the 1980s from the desire to protect musicians who were holding illegal concerts during the Soviet era.

The muscle-flexing Russian leader has not been averse to being associated with tough bikers and has described motorcycles as "the most dramatic form of transport."

Three years ago, he leaped onto a Harley Davidson to join about 5,000 bikers at an international convention in southern Ukraine sporting black sunglasses, black jeans and black fingerless gloves.

The head of Finland's national police force, Mikko Paatero, apologized for the "mistaken" inclusion of Putin's name in the database.

"This kind of incident is extremely exceptional and is not acceptable under any circumstances," Paatero said in a statement.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/aa9398e6757a46fa93ed5dea7bd3729e/Article_2013-04-10-Finland-Putin/id-4c03182cdb0b4d8f9690dbf80ebe3e85

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The Dawn of a Golden Age for California Singletrack? ? Adventure ...

Mountain Bike Trail Groups Gain Access for Riders Throughout the State

By Matthew De Young

I grew up mountain biking in the San Francisco Bay Area, a place that has been simultaneously a mountain biker?s promised land and a kind of purgatory. While there is a huge amount of public land and miles of trails easily accessible from most points in the Bay Area, many parks and trails are closed to mountain bikers. As a teenager I became acutely aware that as mountain bikers my friends and I were the ?black sheep? of the trail user community. The singletrack we rode was often built illegally and we were never certain how long any given trail would last before it was ?erased? by land managers. Even trails officially open to mountain bikers could be an unpleasant experience. Rangers hiding in the bushes with radar guns ready to issue speeding tickets were not unheard of. Hikers often eyed us with a wary distaste, and addressed us with cold words. In typical teenage fashion we embraced our outlaw reputation, and this did nothing to help the cycle of marginalization.

Eventually I left California for Colorado to work for a company that specialized in building trails catering to mountain bikers. Our clients were mostly public land managers, the counterparts of those I had demonized through my youth in California. I found that I had to let go of the chip on my shoulder as rangers, hikers, and horseback riders in most instances seemed to regard cyclists as their equals on the trail. Most of the trails we built in Colorado were multi-use trails, laid out with the intention of reducing user conflict while still providing an enjoyable experience for all. This was achieved by maximizing sight distance and incorporating features that limit biker speed while still providing some excitement. We also built trails designed for the sole use of mountain bikers, trails that allowed for high speeds with jumps, berms, and other technical features. I could not get over the fact that we were building these progressive trails in city parks, in state parks, and on Federal Lands where they were easily and conveniently accessible to local residents. If this was becoming the norm in Colorado, what was the major malfunction in California?

What I came to realize is that mountain bikers in Colorado had not simply been handed these facilities out of the blue, but had put in serious effort in terms of painstaking diplomacy to make sure land managers addressed their needs.

After a couple years in Colorado, I moved back to California. I was keen to get involved with local trail advocates and to find out what was going on statewide. What I found was that there is a growing culture of trail advocacy among mountain bikers in California, and that while the State is lagging behind many parts of the U.S. and Canada in terms of opportunities for mountain bikers, various groups are working to change that in a hurry. Here is a regional breakdown of some of the progress.

Santa Cruz

New trail tools ready for work in Santa Cruz. Photo: Root One Productions

While Santa Cruz is widely regarded as a mountain bike Mecca, a first time visitor would be curiously hard-pressed to find much in the way of riding. Looking at a trail map of the Santa Cruz area a mountain biker might be left sorely disheartened to note that legitimate trail access opportunities are limited. In fact, most of the public lands surrounding Santa Cruz aren?t open to mountain bikers or only allow them on fire roads.

So why do mountain bikers still flock to the area to ride? Quite frankly it?s because riding illegally in Surf City is the accepted practice. Extensive illegally built trail networks crisscross the hills above the town. Linking these illegally built trails with other trails closed to mountain bikes makes for some of the best riding in California. And while the riding in Santa Cruz is extensive, the quality of the trails vary widely, as many of these pirate trails have built been built with little concern for sustainability and only see sporadic maintenance. Riders also risk hefty fines if they are caught riding in certain areas.

Mountain Bikers of Santa Cruz (MBOSC) was formed in 1997 with the goal of changing the situation promoting mountain biking as a legitimate form of recreation in the area. MBOSC has been instrumental in maintaining mountain bike access to trails, bringing riders together to perform trail maintenance, and collaborating with land managers to provide new access opportunities for mountain bikers.

Volunteers shaping a berm on the Emma McCrary Trail in Santa Cruz. Photo: Root One Productions

One of MBOSC?s most notable successes has been the approval and ongoing construction of a new multi-use trail linking the city of Santa Cruz with surrounding State Parks and UC Santa Cruz. The trail, dubbed ?The Emma McCrary Trail? after the recently passed stalwart fixture of the Santa Cruz Trail community, traverses Pogonip, a Santa Cruz city park historically closed to mountain bikers. The approval and construction of this trail is a watershed event for MBOSC who faced entrenched and fierce opposition from land managers, city council members and other user groups in its efforts to establish trail access for cyclists through Pogonip.

Nearly 2,200 volunteer hours have gone into trail construction thus far, according to Drew Perkins, MBOSC?s trails officer, who has been hired by the City of Santa Cruz to oversee trail construction. The trail is slated to open in the spring of 2013 and will be open to hikers, bikers, and equestrians. MBOSC has plans to build on this success with the construction of new trails in nearby Soquel Demonstration Forest and the reconstruction of trails in De Laveaga City Park.

Marin

Marin County has been the stage for some of the fiercest anti-mountain bike battles in the state, and likely the nation. The National Park Service set the precedent for land manager?s exclusion of mountain bikers when it shut down trails to riders in the Golden Gate National Recreation Area in Marin, the sport?s birthplace(!), in the 1980s. Equestrian, hiking, and environmental groups have provided consistent opposition to any attempts made by cyclists to establish mountain bike access on public lands. While the mountain bike community continues to work with public land managers with limited success to establish mountain bike access, riders have found an ally in the local Boy Scout Council.

Camp Tamarancho is a Boy Scout Camp just outside of Fairfax. In 1996, Jim Jacobsen, then President of the Bicycle Trails Council of Marin and a professional trail builder, approached the Marin Council of the Boy Scouts of America about building mountain bike oriented trails at their Camp Tamarancho property. The Boy Scouts were receptive to the idea and thus began a six-year campaign of trail construction. Over 10,000 volunteer hours went into the creation of an 8.2 mile network of singletrack. Not only do these trails serve as a playground for Boy Scouts, but they are open to the public as well for a nominal fee. The Boy Scouts charge riders $5 for a day pass or $40 for an annual pass. These revenues go directly back into camp operations and also support the Friends of Tamarancho volunteer group, who maintain and take charge of new trail projects.

The Friends of Tamarancho are currently working on a new trail extension that employs progressive, mountain bike specific trail construction, the first of its kind open for public access in the region. The extension will be approximately two thirds of a mile of head-high berms and large rolling jumps. It will link up to an adjacent skills park with log rides and other technical features. While this may sound like an experts only affair, it is being built to appeal to most riders. The features are designed so that they can provide advanced riders with the opportunity to catch some air while still allowing beginners and intermediate riders the opportunity to keep their wheels on the dirt. The trail will be directional, with only downhill traffic permitted.

San Luis Obispo

New trail at Montana de Oro State Park near San Luis Obispo. Photo: CCCMB/FTA

Trail access for mountain bikers in San Luis Obispo County is expanding rapidly. This is largely due to the efforts of the Central Coast Concerned Mountain Bikers. CCCMB was founded in 1987 in response to trail closures at Montana de Oro State Park just south of Morro Bay. Since then CCCMB has collaborated with State Parks, the U.S. Forest Service, the City of San Luis Obispo, and San Luis Obispo County to promote mountain biking. Not only has CCCMB preserved mountain bike access to lands managed by the aforementioned land managers, it has been the driving force behind new trail construction on their lands as well. CCCMB has a large volunteer base and regularly draws sixty plus volunteers to its workdays. On the last annual Super Bowl Sunday Trail Workday, 245 people showed up to volunteer. This large labor force has given CCCMB the ability to push projects forwards even as land managers are cutting staff and scaling back operations by backfilling their losses with volunteer labor.

CCCMB has had success in partnering with other user groups, an area where many advocacy groups struggle. Its board of directors includes equestrians and hikers. Equestrian and hiking groups have donated money to CCCMB for trail construction and maintenance and have collaborated to fund environmental assessment for new trail projects for cash strapped land managers. This unity among user groups has resulted in increased trail access for all.

CCCMB is currently working on an extensive trail project at Montana de Oro State Park. After the initial closure to bikes in the 1980s, it was determined that a portion the park would be open to bikes, while the other portion would be reserved for hikers and equestrians. State Parks approached CCCMB in 2008 with hopes of utilizing CCCMB?s trail design and construction expertise for some trail reroutes on some badly eroded trails in the part of the park closed to bikers. As a token of good will CCCMB dove into the project and undertook design and construction. It has since been determined that bikes will in fact be allowed on much of the new trail construction.

The project includes rerouting the four-mile Oats Peak with seven miles of sustainably constructed trail as well as the construction of several miles of new trail. CCCMB volunteers, the California Conservation Corps, and the Forest Trails Alliance (FTA) have performed construction. FTA, a non-profit mountain bike trail advocacy based out of Forest City, has performed all of the mechanized construction on the project utilizing a mini-excavator and a skid steer. Their fees have been paid by State Parks with money furnished by AT&T as mitigation for construction performed within the park. The San Luis Obispo Parks Open Space and Trails Foundation (SLOPOST) have covered additional expenses. As a non-profit, FTA?s revenues will go directly back into trail advocacy in the Forest City area.

Humboldt

While Humboldt County has huge tracts of public lands, historically mountain bike access has been limited. The Bigfoot Bicycle Club based out of the Arcata-Eureka area has been hard at work to change this. After years of working with various land managers, Humboldt County mountain bikers are achieving great success, as evidenced by the number of trail projects underway and in the pipeline.

The California Conservation Corps transporting a culvert during construction of the Paradise Royale Trail in Humboldt County. Photo: Gary Pritchard-Petersen

The construction of the Paradise Royale Trail in the King?s Range National Conservation Area, on southern Humboldt?s Lost Coast, was a major success for local mountain bikers. When the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) opened its land management plan review for the King?s Range NCA for public comment, mountain bikers showed up, some affiliated with the Bigfoot Club, and voiced their desire for trails open to mountain bike use. Gary Pritchard-Petersen, the manager of the Kings Range NCA recognized the need for legitimate bike access and engaged the cycling community to meet their needs. Local mountain bikers, the Bigfoot Cycling Club, and IMBA became involved, and the Paradise Royale trail was born.

The Paradise Royale Trail is a treat. The views of the Pacific nearly 2,000 feet below are epic, you can ride from your campsite, and the campground has its own skills park. The Paradise Royale Trail is a perfect example of well-designed singletrack. There are no awkward turns requiring the rider to dump a bunch of speed with a fistful of brake, all of the switchbacks are rideable, and you are constantly kept on your toes. It is worth the trip.

Farther north, twenty miles northeast of Eureka, lies the Lacks Creek Management Area, a nearly 9,000 acre piece of land also managed by the BLM. The Bigfoot Bicycle Club as well as the Humboldt Trails Council have been working with the BLM to open up trail access to the property. Environmental assessments have been performed, clearing the way for nearly thirty miles of trail construction. This will include ten miles of mountain bike specific trail, including a downhill specific trail, and fifteen to twenty miles of multi-use trail, of which a few miles have already been constructed.

The Arcata Community Forest, is a 2,350 acre forest owned by the City of Arcata. The forest sits directly adjacent to the City as well as Humboldt State University. Sustainable logging revenues fund forest management, habitat restoration, and creation and upkeep of recreation facilities in the forest. The forest features just over eleven miles of mostly multi-use trails. The city recently purchased an adjoining piece of property known as the Sunny Brae Forest, which had been the site of several illegally built mountain bike trails. Bigfoot Cycling Club has worked closely with the city on the trail development plan for this new acquisition. Several miles of multi-use trail will link the Sunny Brae Forest to the Arcata Community Forest, and construction on these trails began in the fall of 2012. Plans have also been made for the construction of directional mountain bike specific trails catering to every skill level.

These victories are just a few examples of what mountain bikers can achieve when they organize themselves, even in the face of staunch resistance. By working with land managers and with other trail users, these groups have provided increased trail access not only for cyclists but in many cases for hikers and equestrians as well. Turning mountain bike access from a divisive issue into an opportunity for community growth has been an additional success story for these advocacy group.

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Want To Get Involved?
California Mountain Bike Trail Access Groups by Region

Auburn ? Folsom Auburn Trail Riders Action Coalition (FATRAC) ? www.fatrac.org
Downieville ? Sierra Buttes Trail Stewardship (SBTS) ? www.sierratrails.org
East Bay Area ? Bicycle Trails Council Of The East Bay (BTCEB) ? www.btceb.org
Forest City ? Forest Trails Alliance (FTA) ? www.foresttrailsalliance.org
Kern County ? Southern Sierra Fat Tire Association (SSFTA) ? www.ssfta.com
Lake Tahoe ? Tahoe Area Mountain Bike Association (TAMBA) ? www.mountainbiketahoe.org
Los Angeles ? Concerned Off-road Bicyclist Association (CORBA) ? www.corbamtb.com
Marin County ? Access4Bikes ? www.access4bikes.com
Marin County ? Marin County Bicycle Coalition (MCBC) ? www.marinbike.org
Mendocino County ? Ukiah Valley Trail Group (UVTG) ? www.mendotrails.org
Monterey ? Monterey Off Road Cycling Association (MORCA) ? www.morcamtb.org
Nevada City ? Bicyclists Of Nevada County (BONC) ? www.bonc.org
Orange County ? Share Mountain Bike Club ? www.sharemtb.com
Pasadena ? Mount Wilson Bicycling Association (MWBA) ? www.mwba.org
Reno ? Poedunks ? www.poedunks.org
San Diego ? San Diego Mountain Bike Association (SDMBA) ? www.sdmba.com
San Luis Obispo ? Central Coast Concerned Mountain Bikers (CCCMB) ? www.cccmb.org
San Mateo/Santa Clara County ? Responsible Organized Mountain Pedalers (ROMP) ? www.romp.org
Santa Barbara ? Santa Barbara Mountain Bike Trail Volunteers (SBMTV) ? www.sbmtv.org
Santa Cruz ? Mountain Bikers Of Santa Cruz (MBOSC) ? www.mbosc.org
Sonoma County ? Sonoma County Trails Council (SCTC) ? www.sonomatrails.org
Tehachapi ? Tehachapi Mountain Trails Association (TMTA) ? www.tehachapitrails.org

Source: http://adventuresportsjournal.com/biking/the-dawn-of-a-golden-age-for-california-singletrack

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Sunday, April 7, 2013

Nelson Mandela discharged from South Africa hospital

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

A security guard prevents young Kristen Lewis (center) and her mother Michelle Lewis from going any closer to Nelson Mandela's home Saturday. Kristen gave a small gift, a get-well message and a balloon to the guard for the former president.

By Ian Johnston, Staff Writer, NBC News

Nelson Mandela was discharged on Saturday from the hospital where he had been undergoing treatment for pneumonia, South Africa?s presidency said in a statement.

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View images of civil rights leader Nelson Mandela ? who went from anti-apartheid activist to prisoner to South Africa's first black president.

The decision to release the 94-year-old, anti-apartheid icon was taken ?following a sustained and gradual improvement in his general condition,? the statement said.

?The former President will now receive home-based high care,? it added. ?President [Jacob] Zuma thanks the hard-working medical team and hospital staff for looking after Madiba so efficiently."

The statement said Zuma also extended ?his gratitude to all South Africans and friends? of the country in Africa and overseas.

Photographers captured pictures of an ambulance that was believed to be carrying Mandela arriving at his home in Houghton, Johannesburg.

Among a small group of well-wishers was Michelle Lewis and her daughter?Kristen, who was two on Saturday. Kristen gave a small gift, a get-well message and a balloon for Mandela to a guard at the house, according to Getty Images.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner has a history of lung problems dating back to when he contracted tuberculosis as a political prisoner. He spent 27 years in prison on Robben Island and in other jails for his attempts to overthrow the white-minority government.

He was admitted to the hospital shortly before midnight March 27, and?Zuma initially asked people to pray for him, prompting global concern for Mandela's health.

Global figures, including President Barack Obama, sent get-well messages.

Siphiwe Sibeko / Reuters

An ambulance believed to be transporting Nelson Mandela arrives at his house in Houghton, South Africa, Saturday.

A government statement issued Saturday said doctors had drained excess fluid from Mandela's lungs and that he was breathing without difficulty.

And this week saw several updates on his condition that said he was getting better.

Mandela became South Africa's first black president in 1994 and was hailed as a global symbol of tolerance and harmony.

He stepped down as president in 1999 and has not been politically active for a decade.

But he is still revered at home and abroad for leading the struggle against apartheid rule and then championing racial reconciliation while in office.

Former South African president Nelson Mandela is at home resting after being discharged from the hospital where he was being treated for a recurring lung infection and pneumonia. NBC's Ron Allen reports.

Related:

Mandela hospitalized again, South Africa leader asks world to pray for him

Mandela visited by family amid pneumonia treatment

'Who is my Mandela?' South Africans consider icon's place in a changing world

This story was originally published on

Source: http://feeds.nbcnews.com/c/35002/f/653387/s/2a673c08/l/0Lworldnews0Bnbcnews0N0C0Inews0C20A130C0A40C0A60C176292910Enelson0Emandela0Edischarged0Efrom0Esouth0Eafrica0Ehospital0Dlite/story01.htm

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Saturday, April 6, 2013

Samsung Expects 1Q2013 Earnings Of $7.7B, Up 53% Thanks To Smartphone Sales

samsung-logoSamsung said that it expects to post first quarter operating profit of about 8.7 trillion won ($7.7 billion USD), up 53 percent from the 5.7 trillion won operating profit it earned a year earlier. The South Korean tech giant also said that its sales likely rose to between 51 trillion won and 53 trillion won from 45.3 trillion won a year earlier. Sales of its more than 30 smartphones models helped increase shipments to a record high in the first quarter despite the post-holiday shopping slump that hit rival Apple. Five analysts cited by?Reuters said that Samsung likely shipped 68 million to 70 million smartphones, up from 63 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. In comparison, iPhone shipments likely fell 30 percent to the 30 million range from 47.8 million in the fourth quarter, the analysts said. Earnings have grown on sales of the Galaxy S and Note series, but analyst Lee Sun-tae of NH Investment & Securities told Reuters that Samsung will probably begin to rely increasingly on mid-tier handsets like the Rex and Galaxy Pop in order to keep momentum going in sales as competition in the high-end market ramps up. The lower-priced phones will also help the company, which currently manufactures more than 30 smartphone models, compete in emerging markets. “The first quarter will be the bottom of its earnings cycle for this year, and things will only get better from here as it rolls out new mobile products,” said Lee. Samsung has already enjoyed record breaking profits for five quarters in a row, but 42 analysts surveyed by Reuters said that the Galaxy S4, which will be released later this month, may boost earnings in this quarter up to an all-time high of 9.7 trillion won. On the other hand, some analysts say the rising production cost of higher-end devices may chip into Samsung’s margins. The Galaxy S4′s new features “could potentially put pressures on their overall smartphone margins. The big cost drivers are the improved HD resolution AMOLED touchscreen, quad-core applications processor and memory,” IHS iSuppli senior analyst Wayne Lam?told the Wall Street Journal.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/xJGgJWIoYWs/

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O mercado dos PC perde terreno face aos tablets


As vendas do computador de escrit?rio e de PC port?til ir?o baixar de 7,6% neste ano, no momento em que os consumidores preferem de cada vez mais se equipar de tablets e de smartphones, prediz quinta feira o escrit?rio americano de conselho e de pesquisa Gartner.
A enquete de Gardner ressalta que todos os aparelhos conectados confundidos -PC, Tablets, Smartphones- est?o em boa via para conhecer um crescimento de 9% neste ano, com a venda de 2,4 bilh?es de unidades.
Mas uma mudan?a est? ocorrendo, com principalmente a prolifera??o de tablets ainda mais potente e com custos revistos em baixa, relegando para segundo plano os PC tradicionais, comenta Carolina Milanesi, da Gartner.
"Se algumas pessoas v?o guardar o computador e o tablet - em particular aquelas que utilizam um e outro, at? mesmo os dois, para o trabalho e para o prazer- uma maioria vai se satisfazer de ter somente um tablet como computador principal ?, ela estima.
"Enquanto que os consumidores se voltam de mais em mais para os tablets e smartphones em detrimento de seu PC, eles n?o v?o mais ver seu computador pessoal como um aparelho que dever?o substituir regularmente ?, acrescenta esta analista.
O mercado dos PC tradicionais, quer seja os computadores port?teis ou de escrit?rio, deveria assim cair de 7,6% e, 2013, com 315 milh?es de unidades vendidas. Esta baixa risca de ser compensada em parte para as vendas de PC ditos "ultra port?teis" - os mais finos e os mais leves- que deveriam dobrar para 23,6 milh?es de unidades, de acordo com Gardner.
A empresa precisa que as vendas mundiais de tablets dever? subir de 69,8% neste ano, 197 milh?es de unidades.
"Pre?os mais baixos, variedades de formas, das atualiza??es e adi??o de consumidores para as aplica??es ser?o as iniciativas chave no mercado dos tablets ?, nota Ranjit Atwal, diretor de pesquisa na Gartner.
Todos os aparelhos confundidos, o sistema Android de Google fio o mais popular em 2012 com 22% dos 2,2 bilh?es de unidades vendidas, contra 15% para Windows e 10% Apple.
Fonte : AFP

Source: http://pt.kioskea.net/news/19967-o-mercado-dos-pc-perde-terreno-face-aos-tablets

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Friday, April 5, 2013

As Koreas face off, risk of accidental war grows

By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - At the North Korean embassy in London, they are answering the phone but saying little.

"As far as we know, we are not giving any statements," a North Korean official told Reuters, declining to give his name and saying all necessary information was already available on the website of the North Korean state news agency KCNA.

In fact, the world, well beyond Asia, is perplexed by the mysteries of the nuclear-capable state's bellicosity and many fear mutual ignorance could help turn words into acts of war.

Many foreign analysts offer reassurance. No one, they say, really wants war. Missile and nuclear tests, threats of possible atomic strikes on the United States and military drills on both sides of the divided Korean peninsula, reflect rather a youthful North Korean leader and newly elected South Korean government both finding their feet at home and testing their strengths.

Yet neither 30-year-old Kim Jong-un, who succeeded his late father just over a year ago, nor South Korea's President Park Geun-hye is seen having much room or appetite to back down.

The risk of miscalculation or mistake sparking accidental conflict may be growing by the day - bringing with it the greatest risk in years of a regional nuclear exchange.

"We have had worrying times before, but this is bad," says Victor Cha, former director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.

"The rhetoric is off the charts. We don't understand this new guy at all," added Cha, who is now a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"And if the North Koreans move to provoke the South, the South is going to retaliate in a way we haven't seen before."

This month's joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises have sparked outcry from the North and could make for the most dangerous weeks on the peninsula in more than two decades.

"COULD GO VERY WRONG"

"There are number of ways this could go very wrong," says Ken Gause, chief North Korea specialist at the Center for Naval Analyses, a U.S. government-funded research institute that advises the U.S. military among others.

"You have two new governments in North and South Korea that are still finding out where each other's red lines are."

While there is uncertainty over whether North Korea is capable of firing a nuclear device across the border or over the sea at Japan or U.S. Pacific bases, even a conventional conflict could be devastating. Meanwhile, the risk of confrontation with Pyongyang's traditional ally China also worries Washington.

The likely human and economic cost, those with knowledge of events say, was one of the key reasons Washington held back from direct military action against the North Korean nuclear program in the 1990s to stop it completing a nuclear device.

South Korean soldiers place a camouflage net over their military vehicle during a military exercise near the border village of Panmunjom in Paju, north of Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, April 4, 2013. ... more? South Korean soldiers place a camouflage net over their military vehicle during a military exercise near the border village of Panmunjom in Paju, north of Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, April 4, 2013. North Korea warned Thursday that its military has been cleared to attack the U.S. using "smaller, lighter and diversified" nuclear weapons, while the U.S. said it will strengthen regional protection by deploying a missile defense system to Guam. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man) less? ?

The bottom line, veteran North Korea watchers say, is that the outside world still has little real understanding of what is happening in the secretive authoritarian state.

Satellites and spies may provide basic details of weaponry, but the intentions of those at the top remained very opaque.

"It is basically guesswork," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a one-time North Korea specialist at the U.S. State Department and later deputy head of its nuclear non-proliferation team.

"China and Russia may have a better understanding than us, but I don't believe anyone is truly on top of it," added Fitzpatrick, now a senior analyst at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

How much the North - and Kim Jong-un in particular - understands events outside its borders is also far from clear.

The London embassy - housed in a modest villa in the suburb of Ealing - is one of only a few overseas missions run by the administration in Pyongyang. Direct contact with foreigners is rare and many senior leaders have never left the country.

SOUTHERN READINESS

South Korea is also preparing militarily. After criticism at home for muted responses to the sinking of one of its warships in 2010 and fatal shelling of an island in 2011, the government in Seoul has ramped up its readiness in case of attack.

Even an accidental incident on either side, analysts now worry, could spark dramatic and almost instantaneous escalation.

Much larger than normal, this year's annual U.S. exercises show Washington reassuring its South Korean and Japanese allies that it stands behind them. But some analysts suggest the public deployment of U.S. firepower, including B-52 and B-2 bombers, risks provoking reaction from the untried new Kim in Pyongyang.

A grandson of the founder of the communist state, he is seen still consolidating power among older generals and relatives who make up North Korea's powerful elite. That may mean burnishing his credentials by responding forcefully to perceived threats.

For all its rhetoric, however, observers say North Korea has yet to take many steps, such as deporting foreign visitors and fully mobilizing its forces, that might presage an actual war - though reports of it warning diplomats to be ready to leave Pyongyang added to the climate of tension.

The best hope for a return to calm, some analysts believe, may be that those in Pyongyang prove better at understanding the outside world than foreigners have been at understanding them.

"They have the Internet," says Chris Torrens, Asia analyst at London-based consultancy Control Risks. "It may be easier for them to look out than it is for us to look in."

(Additional reporting by Mark Hosenball in Washington; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/koreas-face-off-risk-accidental-war-grows-133444711.html

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